The late Peter Drucker once commented, "I never predict. I simply look out the window and see what is visible but not yet seen."

In the spirit of Peter's remark, Lisa Shannon - associate publisher at Pfeiffer, a Wiley Imprint - and I sat down in the Wiley offices in San Francisco and looked out the window at the world of training and development. Here are some of the sights we seeand you may, too.

  1. Practice, Practice, Practice. For the last couple of years, I've been ranting about how talent is not the key to unlocking excellence in leadershipor anything else for that matter. What truly differentiates the expert performers from the good performers is hours of practice. I first learned this from Anders Ericsson, a Florida State University professor and a noted authority on expertise. His research shows that it takes hard work to become the best. It sure doesn't happen from a weekend course or episodic participation in workshops. It has to be daily and sustained. Research by my co-author Barry Posner and colleague Lillas Brown supports this work. Popular authors, such as Outliers author Malcolm Gladwell, are now writing and speaking about this, too, and we expect to be hearing more about it in the coming years. Training and development strategies will start focusing more on what people must do on the job to practice their new knowledge, skills, and abilities - much like what musicians and athletes have to do - and not just on the methods and designs we use in the classroom.
  2. Follow-up, follow-up, follow-up. A piece of the emphasis on deliberate practice is the growing demand for more post-training follow-up. Marshall Goldsmith and Howard Morgan wrote in an article in Strategy+Business that "time and time again, one variable emerged as central to the achievement of positive long-term change: the participants' ongoing interaction and follow-up with colleagues." The improvement in those who didn't follow-up "barely exceeded random chance." The Fort Hill Company, a New Jersey-based training and development company, makes learning transfer the focus of its business because founder Cal Wick discovered that only one in six participants actually put a program into practice. Recent research by a doctoral student I work with found that just telling people you were going to follow-up with them three weeks after a class increased significantly the number of actions students put into practice. This is not surprising or news to anyone in training and development, but our sense is that every development effort in the near future will have to include plans for how coaches and facilitators are going to support follow-up and implementation. Without those steps, it is going to be hard to justify spending the money.
  3. Just-in-time learning and performance support. A decade or so ago, there was a clear shift away from four- and five-day training programs, to one- and two-day sessions. It's not that shorter is better - see trend one above - but people are feeling more and more squeezed for time and resources. The recession has only made this more apparent. There's also a recognition that classroom learning needs to be accompanied by learning that is there when I need it - learning that helps me deal with a real problem at the time I am experiencing it or prepares me for something that I am going to be doing in the next hour or couple of days. I need help designing a meeting I am going to conduct, I need to rehearse for a presentation, and I need some coaching around a performance review I'm going to be doing tomorrow. Our learning needs are continuous and daily, and so should be our learning opportunities. We all know that learning is more likely to be useful and to stick when it is needed. We could go off to a course and learn information well in advance of a problem, but if the need isn't immediate, it's less likely to be immediately applied. Look for more and more solutions to this problem.
  4. Mobility. The good news is that new social media technologies support this. Mobile devices such as the iPhone, Droid, iPad, and other PDAs enable follow-up. You can tweet, text, and email people wherever they are and check in to see how folks are doing. You can send out notices about what other people are doing, set up learning groups on Ning or LinkedIn, and create conversation threads that continue learning anytime, anywhere. Facebook and other social media sites are no longer just places for friends to swap pictures and stories about their personal lives. They are now serious venues for learning. While there is danger of overload and distraction, training is now part of the digital age, and we need to include mobile devices in our learning designs. Mobility facilitates just-in-time learning and performance support, and we envision a time when many inviting options will be just a click away.
  5. Informal learning. Part of the growing awareness that learning is something that should, and does, go on daily and is not linked to events, is the understanding that we learn a lot from the casual conversation, the brief encounter in the hallway, and the face-to-face meeting with a colleague. Learning isn't about events; it's about process. We need to find ways to enable learning on the fly, and in informal ways. Again, social media supports informal learning, and we need to find ways to take advantage of their power to promote it. Perhaps the focus of training and development should be as much about - and here we're reaching back decades; what's old is new again - learning how to learn as it should be about learning specific content.

These aren't all the sights out the window, and I'm hoping you'll share yours. What do you see as trends in training and development? What are the implications? What are you doing that to make them more visible in your organization? I'm curious to know what you see.

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Jim Kouzes is co-author of The Leadership Challenge and The Truth About Leadership, which has more than 1.8 million copies sold. He's also the Dean's Executive Professor of Leadership at the Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University;jim@kouzes.com.