(From Business Wire) -- Businesses around the world are currently experiencing a profound market shift that will impact the supply and demand for skilled talent over the next decade, according to a detailed research study conducted by Oxford Economics in partnership with professional services company Towers Watson, along with BAT, the Center for Effective Organizations at the University of Southern California, Cummins, Edison International and others listed in the research report, and in collaboration with the Organization of American States. The research reveals a race between technology and education as technology fuels demand for highly skilled workers, while emerging economies increase the supply of talent through greater access to education.
The study, which includes a global survey of 352 human resource executives and in-depth interviews with leading multinational firms, examines how rapid globalization and the transformation of business models in virtually every industry will affect workforce needs in the future, and the implications for senior business executives and their HR leaders. The study also includes an extensive economic modeling exercise of 46 countries and 21 industry sectors to identify where pivotal changes in the demand and supply of talent will occur over the next decade, based on government data and Oxford Economics’ own forecasts.
The study revealed that the balance between supply and demand of talent differs from market to market in ways that will significantly impact the global workplace over the next 10 years. Specifically, as the skills employers require become more complex, labor shortages are projected in many mature markets, including the U.S., Germany, Canada and Italy. Meanwhile, a surplus of skilled talent is likely to emerge in locales such as Brazil, Colombia, India and South Africa.
“The dynamic changes in global economics and ever-evolving technology necessitate that companies rethink how they address their shifting talent needs. Some of these changes run counter to what most companies have been experiencing in various markets,” said Ravin Jesuthasan, global practice leader for talent management at Towers Watson. “These new realities make it incumbent on HR executives to consider new and creative ways to access talent across the globe.”
Future Global Employment Growth
The survey suggests that a decade from now, eight of the top 10 countries with the largest talent surpluses will be in the developing world, led by India, Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa. In these economies, the increasing abundance of skilled workers will compress the wage premium for talent, allowing for investment in new technologies and business models that will fuel growth well beyond 2021. By contrast, mature economies like the U.K., U.S., Japan, South Korea, Canada and Italy will confront shortages of skilled workers, in part because of their aging demographics.
According to survey respondents, the most dramatic jump in employment demand will be in emerging Asia, where the need for new employees will jump some 22.2%. Other emerging markets that will see above-average growth in required staff are Latin America (13.4%), the Middle East and Africa (13.2%) and Eastern Europe (10.5%).